Real time betting, FANTASTIC

Running blog of real-time betting by Chad Millman for SB44 (must have ESPN insider for the whole article, sorry). Sounded like an absolute blast, and really has me looking forward to March Madness - still room to get in on the trip, btw!!

Chad Millman bets the Super Bowl in real-time and lives to tell the tale - ESPN

Great win by the Saints, I am glad I was wrong on my initial pick (as are a couple of my buddies who went in heavy on the Saints against the spread). Fun party, though I just getting my work-legs back!

I am pretty excellent at blogging

Scary stuff

Came across this article as I was reviewing my twitter feed this AM:

It Is Now Mathematically Impossible To Pay Off The U.S. National Debt

While I cannot claim to have anywhere near the understanding of the financial system as the author, this article really got me thinking. There is so much about how finance works that most Americans don't (and will never) understand. I think most people have assumptions, that according to this post may not be entirely correct. As the national debt expands, one can't help but feel like we are getting closer to a reckoning - people get fed up, want their money, can't get to it, chaos ensues. This comment was especially depressing:

"There is no way to fix it now and no way out. The best solution is to hunker down, let it all burn down around you as social disorder asserts itself, and try to come out alive. If you do, you’ll be a part of rebuilding the country, this time hopefully NOT under control of bankers with specific unchangeable parts of the Constitution that EXPLICITLY FORBID handing the money supply over to private banks of any kind."

Sure there is probably a healthy dose of alarmistic hyperbole it there, but I think there is an important underlying message. We need to understand more the impact of our spending and expansion of government (all government - defense, social programs, etc.) and make smarter decisions with our money. Reminds me of one of my favorite quotes:

“A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always vote for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship.

The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations from the beginning of history, has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, those nations always progressed through the following sequence:

(1) From bondage to spiritual faith;
(2) From spiritual faith to great courage;
(3) From courage to liberty;
(4) From liberty to abundance;
(5) From abundance to complacency;
(6) From complacency to apathy;
(7) From apathy to dependence;
(8) From dependence back into bondage”

- Alexander Fraser Tytler, 1787

I think we're coasting into level 7 of Tytler's progression. Food for thought.

I am great at blogging...

STUPORBOWL FO'DEE FO'

Ok guys... I have bad news. Had to be in to work early today so I wasnt able to listen to Bob and Brian on my way in, which means I couldn't listen to Jimmy "Masterlock" Dugan. And sadly, the podcast has not been loaded to their site - I know they were having connectivity issues with Czaban (in Miami for SB44) earlier this week, so maybe it was skipped. Anyhoo, if anyone listened in, please shoot me the picks. Otherwise, if they post the audio later, I'll make an addendum. Below are just a few nuggets, plus a bonus non-gambling link from DC...

Wagertracker consensus pick: http://www.wagertracker.com/consensusPicks.aspx?sport=NFL

The betting is surprisingly even, holding at Colts -4.5. I haven't found anyone yet who is willing to bet against the Colts though - it is hard to bet against Manning this year (hasn't lost a game he was trying to win, is something like 23-7 against the NFC over the last few years, including the last SB he was in). Anyway, I'd probably parlay a Colts to cover plus the under (WHAT A DOWNER I AM), even though I'd love to see the Saints pull it out. Oh well.

Chad Millman on a FANTASTIC Prop Bet for this weekend:

Super Bowl prop bet contest crowns a winner - Chad Millman - NFL - ESPN

And the rest of his line move analysis:

Super Bowl XLIV -- Chad Millman: Information on line moves, money line bets and prop bets (Drew Brees as MVP?) for Indianapolis Colts vs. New Orleans Saints - ESPN

Also - unrelated to gambling but still pretty funny... I have a buddy who recently moved to DC from Wisconsin. Apparently the snow followed him, as they are expecting to get 20 or so inches of snow in the blizzard this weekend. Apparently there was a small mob at the neighborhood Whole Foods of "Urban Hipsters" stocking up on Kashi and San Pellegrino. Read all about it: http://borderstan.com/2010/02/04/whole-foods-closes-early-urban-hipsters-panic/

Sharks and things

First, Sharks. Check out this story...

Sharks spotted one day after fatal attack |West Palm Beach News, South Florida Breaking News, Forecast, Video from WPTV

It is a very well documented fact that I am terrified of sharks (just ask the dudes from sabBROtical how calm and collected I was at the Sydney aquarium). For the record, had this story happened in Dec. I probably would have skipped the outback bowl trip - heck, I am even scared to leave the house (there is a lot of snow on the ground here in WI - the city salts the streeets - snowmelt + salt = saltwater, THE NATURAL HABITAT FOR SHARKS!!).

Second, things...

I have too many things. I was infuriated earlier this week bumping into the walls of my stairway to the garage with two arms full of computer bag, lunch bag, gym bag, water bottle, assorted papers and 2 (two) cell phones. This is getting out of hand.

How am I supposed to manage this situation? Multiple trips out to the garage? That takes a lot longer and is just as annoying. Less stuff? Ok, so maybe I could lose a cell phone - the rest is pretty important. Computer? Ya, need it for work. Gym bag? How am I supposed to get ultra ripped wearing business attire at the gym, Copernicus? Lunch? Seriously. No one is giving up lunch. I am willing to pay top dollar for ideas that lead to the solution of my conundrum.

And while we mention the gym - let me step on my douchebox for a second... if I am in the middle of a circuit of MASSIVE pumps at a couple of different stations, DONT SHARK MY BENCH TO TAKE 10 LBS OFF THE BARBELL. MUSCLE MILK!! Wow, that looked even douchey-er in type than it sounds in my head.

As bad as things are, we should be thankful we live in a country where the biggest problems I can come up with are sharks, having too much stuff to carry down the stairs in the AM, and raging out at the gym over some genuinely stupid shit. Well, that and and horribly under qualified and ineffective President, but that is a topic for another post...

Anyway, keep your eyes peeled for the final post with Jimmy "Masterlock" Dugan tomorrow or Friday. After that its a few weeks of college basketball wagering and then (hopefully) a looooong summer.

I am the best blogger in the tri-county region...

Oh and Geaux Saints!!

It's MASTERLOCK weekend

Great weekend last week - made a nice little money line play on Jets parlayed with the under on the same game. Actually, I recommended a buddy do that, but was happy to get one right and make him some cai$h.

It's championship weekend and Jimmy "Masterlock" Dugan can smell victory. The bookmakers are overconfident and ready to make some mistakes. His conference championship weekend credentials, you ask? Masterlock LLC has 15 straight years of winning at least one of the games, 7 straight years of going 2-0, and for the last 5 years has hit the championship weekend over under parlay. Thats a nice run...

Jimmy's Picks
Colts (-7.5) vs. Jets - Jimmy takes the COLTS for the sevenandahook
Saints (-3.5) vs. Vikings - Jimmy's stat of the week: Road teams, with 40 year old quarterbacks in championship games, where the QB goes against a DB who was once a teammate are a STUNNING 11-0 ALL TIME. This is the day to fear, Packer Nation... JIMMY TAKES THE VIKES!!

And remember... its only gambling IF YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU'RE DOING!!

Original audio: http://podcast.1029thehog.com/whqg/2177473.mp3

BS Report - Sports Guy and Millman talk about the fallout from last week (originally aired earlier this week):
http://sports.espn.go.com/espnradio/player?id=4836630

Wagertracker - as of writing this, the under for Vikes at Saints almost looks good... almost...
http://www.wagertracker.com/consensusPicks.aspx?sport=NFL

Tea Party in Taxachusetts!!

Had to post something about tonite's big win - and no I am not talking about Ohio State's trouncing of my beloved Wildcats (yuck!). Scott Brown showed you can overcome an established political machine and culture to repudiate arrogance and anger in leadership. Brown's win in MA should set an example for all mid-term elections this year. Stay on message, stay aggressive, and for god's sake bring some common sense to the table. CLEARLY the Democrats have spent the last year overreaching, completely blowing their load. There has been no listening, no compromise, and this is what happens (it wasn't too long ago Republicans were in the same spot). Dems have a chance now to hit reset and come back to the table - if they don't, Nov. truly will be a bloodbath and Obama really will see his Waterloo.

Anyway, congrats to Senator Brown and his family (including an apparently eligible hot daughter, wink wink... maybe I should move to the commonwealth...). Finally some good news after a year of disappointment!!

I am fantastic at blogging!!

Divisional Playoff time!!

Did really well personally last week, fading the conventional wisdom and parlaying Cards to cover with the over on the same game. CHA-CHING!! Of course that last sentence has angered the gambling gods, who i am sure will extract their revenge during the PAI-GOW tournament in between snow softball matches. Anyway, for your reading

JIMMY "MASTERLOCK" DUGAN'S Divisional Playoff Picks

Saints (-7) vs. Cards - according to Jimmy's crack research staff, QBs returning to the site of a previous Superbowl loss (Warner vs. Pats), which are born again Christians AND on a dome team playing in another team's dome, coming off a five TD performance, are a 73-5-1 ATS. Jimmy takes Cards money line and the over!!
Colts (-6.5)  vs. Ravens - Jimmy thinks the colts luck runs out, JIMMY TAKES BALTIMORE
Vikings (-3) vs. Cowboys - which Viking team is going to show up?? JIMMY TAKES
Chargers (-7.5) vs. Jets - water covers 2/3 of the earth, Revis covers the rest. BUT Jimmy always takes teams on a 11 game win stream - TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS 7andahook!!

And remember... IT'S ONLY GAMBLING IF YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU'RE DOING

Always more fun in the original audio: http://podcast.1029thehog.com/whqg/2163849.mp3
(and Czaban STRONGLY recommends you fade his picks this week)

Millman's blog - line moves for the 2nd round:
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=millman_chad
LOVE the recommendation for prop bet of under 8 punts on Saints-Cards!!

Wagertracker consensus picks (where I was inspired to take Cards last week when 70% of the public went Green Bay):
http://www.wagertracker.com/consensusPicks.aspx?sport=NFL

Sports Guy's Picks:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/100115/two